Urban Planning Must Consider Climate-Linked Displacement
Global leaders, climate scientists and development professionals are gathered in Baku for COP29, where the primary focus is on climate finance to address the ongoing climate crisis. Although the COP framework provides limited scope for in-depth discussions at an operational level, climate-induced migration has received significant attention thus far at COP29, following the establishment of a loss and damage fund at the previous COP28.
The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates that around 46.9 million people had experienced internal displacement by the end of 2023. Approximately 56% of these displacements were caused by disasters such as cyclones, floods and wildfire—many of which are linked to climate change. The World Bank predicts as many as 143 million people in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could be at risk of displacement by 2050 if global warming continues at the ongoing scale.
Given this context, to make meaningful progress global leaders must heed the warning of COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev, who dramatically cautioned, “We are on the road to ruin.” This statement underscores the urgency of setting clear timelines to achieve the 1.5-degree goal. In parallel, to address the current challenges, political leaders must consider climate-linked displacement within regional and urban planning processes and reshape economic structures to allow local economic hubs to grow and absorb climate migrants.
Complexity in distinguishing who climate migrants are
Climate induced migration is an unavoidable reality, although it is difficult distinguish who qualifies as a “climate migrant.” Migration is often driven by overlapping factors—such as economic hardship, environmental stress and conflict—making it challenging to isolate climate as the sole cause of displacement. However, as climate events such as cyclones, heavy rainfall and flooding intensify in regions worldwide, the number of people forced to leave their homes will continue to rise.
Many of those at risk of displacement move toward urban areas in search of livelihoods and so-called better opportunities (see the story of Jakin and Shafali, two climate migrants in Bangladesh). However, a significant portion of the displaced end up living in inhumane conditions, as cities are often unprepared to accommodate the influx of people. As a result, these new arrivals quickly fall into cycles of vulnerability. With limited access to essential services like housing, healthcare and sanitation, they endure harsh, often degrading living conditions. This situation worsens their existing vulnerabilities, compounding economic hardship and deepening social marginalization.
Challenges for migrants accessing services in urban settings
Although cities worldwide are conceptually hubs of migration, climate-induced migrants and displaced groups are often not recognized as part of the cities due to their socio-economic position. This leads to challenges with integration. These migrants and displaced groups usually take shelter in informal settlements with poor infrastructure, resulting in unsafe living conditions. The lack of access to essential services not only compromises their quality of life but also heightens their vulnerability to health crises and poverty, perpetuating a cycle of marginalization.
Due to administrative hurdles, these displaced individuals cannot access government-provided services. For instance, without recognized addresses or identification documents valid in the city, they struggle to enroll their children in schools, receive healthcare or secure formal employment.
Additionally, they may face discrimination or be ignored by local officials, compounding the difficulty of accessing resources intended to support vulnerable populations. In some cases, these migrants may not be protected by laws designed to help internally displaced people or refugees, making them effectively invisible within the city’s administrative systems.
Social exploitation and chronic marginalization
The economic vulnerability of climate-displaced people makes them susceptible to exploitation. Unable to secure formal jobs due to a lack of documentation, they may be forced to accept low-wage or exploitative labor conditions. Without a stable income, they are left vulnerable to coercive and exploitative practices.
Criminal elements may also target these communities for drug trafficking or other socially unacceptable activities, exploiting their lack of options and social support. This not only harms displaced individuals but also perpetuates a negative perception of these communities within urban settings, fostering prejudice and further marginalization.
Intergenerational consequences and unrecoverable losses
Climate-displaced families face intergenerational impacts, as children who miss out on education may become trapped in cycles of poverty. Similarly, inadequate access to healthcare can lead to chronic health conditions that affect their stamina to continue livelihood efforts and achieve economic productivity.
These "unrecoverable losses" manifest as long-term deprivation in education, health and economic stability, making it increasingly difficult for these individuals to improve their living conditions and contribute to the local economy. Thus, the effects of climate displacement extend well beyond the immediate crisis and have lasting consequences for future generations.
Unfortunately, most cities are not prepared to handle the influx of climate-displaced individuals. Without adequate planning, local governments risk being overwhelmed as infrastructure and services buckle under increased demand. Climate migration is therefore not only a humanitarian issue but also a critical urban challenge. Authorities of the cities must proactively develop strategies to manage this reality, integrating the needs of migrants into their planning efforts.
About the Author
Md. Abul Basar is the Project Director for the Strengthened and Informative Migration Systems project implemented by Helvetas Bangladesh. He has almost 20 years of experience addressing contemporary development challenges such as climate change and migration in the wider governance landscape.
