A Blueprint for Identifying Climate Risks in Agricultural Value Chains
Larson Didier is a farmer and father of three living in Migioko in the heart of Madagascar’s Sambirano Valley, a world-renowned growing region for cocoa. He begins each day with a major concern: how to preserve his cocoa farming business in the face of growing climate challenges. Larson is not alone in this concern; the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly alarming across Madagascar. During the rainy season, rainfall is excessive, while the dry season seems interminable. “I have to prepare myself for these upheavals, because there's too much at stake,” said Larson.
Larson’s cocoa plots, spread between the hills and the banks of the Sambirano River, are under intense pressure. Erosion is damaging his plots on the piedmonts, while those close to the river risk being washed away by floods. “The sun is either too intense or not enough, and diseases are weakening my trees,” he said. If Larson doesn't adapt the way he farms, he will lose what makes him a cocoa producer.
Larson is one of many cocoa farmers in Madagascar who are feeling the effects of climate change, such as the increase in diseases and pests that lead to less production – all compounded by flooding. Their vulnerability is exacerbated by a lack of resources to deal with these threats.
One of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries
As a tropical island with a very high level of poverty, exceptional biodiversity and a predominantly agricultural economy, the Global Climate Risk Index ranks Madagascar as the fourth most vulnerable country in the world. Due to its geographical position in the southwest Indian Ocean basin, the country is subject to recurrent natural disasters such as drought and cyclones, which have intensified over the past 25 years and are expected to increase in frequency and severity. These impacts are exacerbated by environmental degradation and the country's socio-economic situation, leading to an increase in climate-related diseases and a loss of ecosystem services due to deforestation.
The Diana Region in the north of the country includes the Sambirano Valley, which is famous for its fine organic cocoa. The area is rich in biodiversity and holds significant economic potential for Madagascar. The development of nature-based solutions for cocoa production is part of local stakeholders' efforts to satisfy national and international markets. But this region, too, is experiencing the increasing impacts of climate change, such as floods and cyclones, which threaten both ecosystems and local livelihoods. Cyclones, combined with reduced annual rainfall and rising temperatures, are causing water stress, making cocoa cultivation increasingly difficult. Pests, exacerbated by the changing climate, also threaten cocoa trees.
Despite these challenges, the cocoa sector offers significant potential for combating poverty and the degradation of ecosystem services. Organic and sustainable cultivation practices and diversified agroforestry systems enable producers to increase their revenues and contribute to the absorption of greenhouse gases, the regulation of the microclimate, and the preservation of biodiversity.
Larson Didier, 36, a cocoa farmer fMadagascar’s Sambirano Valley
Identifying climate risks in key value chains
As part of the Strategic Acceleration Fund financed by Helvetas, four projects were selected to develop and test the basis for integrating climate change into our projects. A climate risk analysis of the cocoa, coffee and vanilla value chains in northern Madagascar was one of the studies supported by the fund. This article focuses on the study’s findings on the risks for cocoa.
Climate change has an impact on all stakeholders in agricultural value chains, but especially on small-scale farmers in low-income countries. Assessing the impact of climate change on production and processing in agricultural value chains and integrating appropriate measures is key to minimizing crop and income losses. The results of the study provide information not only for cocoa sector activities in Madagascar, but also for other agricultural value chains supported by Helvetas’ projects around the world.
The study was carried out in close synergy with the “Climate-Resilient Cocoa Landscapes” project in the Sambirano watershed, which has been implemented by Helvetas Madagascar since 2020 in collaboration with private and public partners. The project aims to guarantee the principle of “zero deforestation,” product traceability and compliance with rigorous standards to protect the environment – all while ensuring sustainable agricultural practices are adapted to the targeted markets.
The aim of the climate risk analysis was to assess the vulnerabilities of some value chains, including cocoa, in the Diana region, identifying adaptation measures in collaboration with key stakeholders. The analysis was based on the “Assessing Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities in Market Systems” guide, which was developed by Helvetas to assess climate risks in a systemic way. The guide combines an analysis of cocoa market systems and adaptations to climate change, identifying bottlenecks and measures to improve resilience. Its participatory approach enables local stakeholders to prioritize actions to be implemented, facilitating integrated long-term risk management. The study focused on the Sambirano Valley, where 95% of Madagascar's cocoa is produced.
Key learnings from the climate risks study
The study highlights that the microclimate of the Sambirano valley is disturbed, impacting cocoa production and profitability. Although rainy periods are getting shorter, they are also becoming more intense and abundant. At the same time, drought is worsening in the region, with an irregular distribution of rainfall, while rising temperatures are encouraging the proliferation of insect pests.
Post-harvest processing, crucial to the preparation of cocoa, is also threatened by flooding, which weakens the necessary infrastructure. Diseases and insect pests affect all stages of production, while traditional control practices are becoming less effective in the face of disease. Although positive synergies are emerging to improve biological pest management, there is a lack of solid scientific evidence concerning control methods, which calls for in-depth experimentation to validate their effectiveness. The measures currently in place have their limitations and need to be further developed to improve their effectiveness and sustainability, based on scientific foundations and in situ observations. Integrating the “nature-based solution” approach into climate change adaptation strategies remains crucial.
Climate extremes compromise the quality and quantity of harvests, calling for adaptation and risk management measures, with a focus on chemical-free practices. Sustainably grown cocoa can play an important role in mitigating climate change and reducing poverty.
Helvetas has been promoting the diversification of income and food sources and climate-smart agriculture in northern Madagascar for about ten years, notably through the promotion of agroforestry, to reduce dependence on market fluctuations and strengthen economic and ecological resilience to climate change. These actions aim to improve the adaptability of cocoa trees and increase producers' incomes, while integrating food diversification. Helvetas also supports capacity building for producers and private partners on good cultivation practices, such as grafting, pruning, organic fertilization and the implementation of product traceability and certification mechanisms. The objectives of Integrated Water Resource Management include the protection of water sources in the medium and long term, the restoration of degraded land to increase the use of water, and the protection of the environment.
However, it is important that climate change is considered in combination with other factors affecting cocoa quantity and quality. The study therefore also examined and integrated non-climate-related risks, such as damage caused by livestock, stand theft or severe forest degradation due to deforestation. Proposed solutions must also take these aspects into account.
The participatory approach encourages the involvement of key stakeholders in the process for better ownership of a shared vision (e.g., private sector operators, key local bodies like the National Cocoa Council or the National Center for Applied Research in Rural Development, as well as producers).
A systematic approach for integrating climate risks into value chains
Helvetas must continue its efforts to integrate climate change into value chains, in alignment with the Madagascar Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development’s (MEDD) priorities and Madagascar's National Adaptation Plan, which includes the aim of strengthening the resilience of rural populations. Cocoa value chain adaptation projects will build on the needs identified in the climate risks study, with the goal of reducing producers' vulnerability while improving ecosystem resilience.
In the face of deforestation and climate change, which threaten organic production, it is essential to improve forest management, including protected areas, to guarantee water and microclimate services. The cocoa sector requires increased support to reduce its vulnerability to climate change and improve the socio-economic resilience of players in market systems. Adopting an “ecosystem-based adaptation” approach is crucial, by integrating ecosystem management and developing resilient infrastructures.
The study has provided an important piece of the puzzle by identifying climate risks and the measures to be taken collaboratively among local stakeholders. It can serve as a basis for action not only for Madagascar's cocoa, coffee and vanilla value chains, but also as a blueprint for the systematic integration of climate risks into agricultural value chains in general.
Climate change will ultimately have an impact on the quantity and quality of all agricultural raw materials. It is important to raise awareness of this, particularly among consumers. At present, the negative externalities of climate change are borne mainly by already vulnerable producers. In the interests of climate justice, it is essential to provide financial resources for adaptation measures. In the face of these challenges, the mobilization of technical and financial partners and donors remains important to enhance and pursue efforts to adapt to climate change to conserve the ecosystem services provided by important ecosystems such as those of the Sambirano Valley.
